Where Has All The Weather Gone?

For years, we have been promised more and more bad weather, stronger "Cat-5" storms, and unprecedented spates of tornadoes.  But here we are, more than halfway through the 2009 hurricane season, and we have yet to see as much as a Category 1 storm make landfall.  There have been tornadoes, but nothing apocalyptic.  Where has all the weather gone?

click on image for larger viewThe fourth month of the Atlantic hurricane season is coming to an end, with not even a tropical storm now in sight.  No hurricane has made landfall in the United States this season.  Meanwhile, Clemson University researchers have concluded that the number of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin is increasing, but there is no evidence that their individual strengths are any greater than storms of the past or that the chances of a U.S. strike are up. Hurricane frequency is up but not their strength, say Clemson researchers. If this season continues to be, shall we say, "mild," even the increased numbers may be questionable.

click on image for larger viewAt the beginning of the year there were predictions of a "strong tornado season" in 2009. Then, earlier this month, Canadian researchers reported that global warming does not appear to be increasing storm events.  And now for an inconvenient fact: tornadoes have occurred well below the long-term average through September of 2009.  See Tornadoes in 2009: Well Below Average Through Sep.

Meanwhile, Arctic sea ice is continuing to rebuild, contrary to predictions of an ice-free Acrtic Ocean.  Although none of this is consistent with global warming theory, neither does it "prove" that there is no such thing as man-made global warming to some extent.  It does indicate, in my humble opinion, that the situation is far more complex than has been presented and that the dire consequences predicted by global-warming adherents don't follow from the observable data.

click on image for larger view

Stay tuned.  The sky isn't falling yet .

Old Farmer's Almanac Agrees -- FROST WARNING!

The Old Farmer's Almanac has joined its competitor, the Farmer's Almanac, in predicting a cold 2009-2010 winter. See 'Old Farmer's Almanac' still spots cold in Web age; Old Farmers Almanac Winter Outlook; 'Old Farmer' says bundle up, and he's usually right.

I keep a link to the OFA in the sidebar of this page and you can go there to get a free short-range forecast.  For the whole story - - buy the almanac!  There's a lot more to it than the weather and if you like homespun tales and lunar-cycle gardening, this is the place.

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When The Rain Comes Labor Day Update

Frost Warning

Green Energy, Dead Birds

Wind farms -- coming to a scenic vista near you!In Coal Power -- Why Everything You Flatlanders Think You Know Is Wrong, I made the following statement: "Alternative-energy proposals for generation of electricity, by comparison, involve such environmentally-unsound measures as erecting windmill generators along Appalachian ridgelines which are migration routes for songbirds, raptors, and Monarch butterflies." Such rash claims have earned me a reputation as some kind of flat-earther reactionary in matters ecological. So how about some facts, if those matter.

From today's Wall Street Journal, an article by Robert Bryce, author of "Gusher of Lies: The Dangerous Delusions of 'Energy Independence'" (PublicAffairs, 2008):

A July 2008 study of the wind farm at Altamont Pass, Calif., estimated that its turbines kill an average of 80 golden eagles per year. The study, funded by the Alameda County Community Development Agency, also estimated that about 10,000 birds—nearly all protected by the migratory bird act—are being whacked every year at Altamont. . . .

Michael Fry of the American Bird Conservancy estimates that U.S. wind turbines kill between 75,000 and 275,000 birds per year. . . .

By 2030, environmental and lobby groups are pushing for the U.S. to be producing 20% of its electricity from wind. Meeting that goal, according to the Department of Energy, will require the U.S. to have about 300,000 megawatts of wind capacity, a 12-fold increase over 2008 levels. If that target is achieved, we can expect some 300,000 birds, at the least, to be killed by wind turbines each year.

Windmills Are Killing Our Birds. Yet the wind energy industry is never prosecuted for killing Federally-protected migratory birds, although traditional energy producers are prosecuted on a regular basis.

This is from an e-mail from a friend who has a long track record of conservationism:

If I thought Appalachian ridgeline turbines were an alternative to fossil fuel use I would be in favor of them. My analysis indicates that it would take a string of turbines from Harpers Ferry to Mount Rogers to produce the same power as Dominion's Wise plant during the peak demand month of August. Unfortunately the level of much of the debate reduces the issue to mountain-top removal versus wind "mills." Offshore and in the deserts makes more sense energy wise and perhaps environmentally. Development on forested Appalachian ridges is simply a tax shelter and a scheme to capture subsidies - in my view.

That would be some 500 miles of wind turbines. 

What is happening currently with alternative energy is a boondoggle, a fiasco, a travesty -- but it is all very politically correct, so none of that matters.

When The Rain Comes Labor Day Update

There are still no sunspots.  Click on the image at right for a larger view. See When The Rain Comes. Of interest for us weather watchers: the Farmer's Almanac has issued a prediction for this winter calling for a very cold season for most of the country. Sunspots are a factor in the Farmer's Almanac weather predictions. The FA claims its weather forecasts tend to be On The Money.

The Old Farmer's Almanac (a different publication) is just out and I'll be picking up a copy soon.  The Old FA also factors in sunspots. See How We Make Our Long-Range Weather Forecast.

When The Rain Comes

click on the image to look for sunspots!It hasn't really been raining forever; it just seems like it has.  The garden and lower yard have grown wildly out of control - - since my mower and trimmer and weedeater are all electric, rain puts yard work out of commission.  Well, darn!

Anyhoo - - we had rain 6 of the last 7 days of July, bringing the total for the month to 7.46 inches (the long-term July average for Richlands is 4.38 inches).  This time last year, the Clinch River was way too low for comfort - - that's the town's water supply - - but now it's full.  Hopefully, the water tables have gotten some recharge; we're coming off five years of drought.

High temperature for July was 85̊F, low was 52̊F.  Nice.

click on the image to search for hurricanes!Maybe a more important story is where it hasn't been raining.  That would be along the southeast coast owing to hurricanes - - which haven't been there.  But according to global warming theory, we should be battered by monster hurricanes.

Oops.

Well, how about this one . . . the wheat crop in Cananda is down.  Because it is too cold.

Oops.

The image in the upper right is the face of the Sun on July 28.  See all the sunspots?

Not!

Frost Warning

The Baby Grand Has Arrived

The Sunspot Cycle

Arctic Sea Ice News