Virginia Election -- A Hammer and Tongs Finish

As Virginia's off-year election nears the finish, there is less and less doubt about the outcome of the statewide races.  The Republican ticket has jumped out to a huge lead in the final week of the contest, leading the Democratic Party candidates by about 12 points.  What is remarkable about this contest is the hammer-and-tongs finishing push by the Republicans, who are campaigning "with tremendous energy or effort."  There will be attempts to minimize the outcome, of course, but this election may signify the return of the Republican killer instinct -- the will to win overcoming the internecine bickering that has marked the GOP's poor performances in recent years.

As of this writing, the polling data indicate a substantial conservative margin among likely voters.  The reports for the week of October 21-28:

Poll                        Date    Sample     (R)     (D)   Margin 
Rasmussen Rpts     10/28   1000 LV    54      41    McDonnell +13
Daily Kos/R2000   10/28    600 LV    54      44    McDonnell +10
Suffolk U.              10/28    400 LV    54      40    McDonnell +14
Roanoke Coll.        10/27    569 LV    53      36    McDonnell +17
SurveyUSA            10/26    502 LV    58      41    McDonnell +17
PublicPolicy            10/26    729 LV    55      40    McDonnell +15
Wash. Post             10/25   1206 LV   55      44    McDonnell +11
VCU                      10/25    625 LV    54      36    McDonnell +18

Although the Democratic ticket was polling as close as 7 points in the previous week, every poll released this week has put the Republicans up by 10 points or better.  The results given above are stated for the McDonnell-Deeds contest for governor but the races for lieutenant governor and attorney general follow suit.

The eight individual polls display a range of results from +10 to +18 points and some of them have relatively small sample sizes.  Differences in methodology and political orientation may make for a certain degree of variation in results. Nonetheless, the aggregate of all eight polls covers 5,631 likely voters and individual differences to some extent cancel out when the numbers are aggregated.  The weighted average margin for the Republicans is +12 points, more than double the reported undecideds. 

Typically, an election narrows in the closing days, and this one may.  But there is not much room to play with for the Democrats; even if they win all of the undecideds, they're still down by 7 points. 

There are several significant trends reflected in the data.  While Democrats who intend to vote strongly support the Democratic candidates, relatively fewer Democrats intend to go to the polls.  Republicans strongly favor their candidates and are more likely to vote.  But the biggest factor is independent voters, who are likely to vote Republican by a margin of almost 2 to 1. This represents a strong turnaround from the 2008 Presidential election.

None of the Republican candidates can be described as "charismatic," or even "exciting." Or, frankly, all that interesting. They are essentially standard-issue GOP suits more likely to be thought of as "reliable" and "conservative." But they are politically savvy and have campaigned well, making the Virginia election a referendum of sorts on both state and national economic issues.  In that regard, the Virginia results may be significant for the 2010 mid-term elections.

Personally, I favor the Republican candidates, but without much enthusiasm.  There is no candidate in the statewide races with a strong libertarian orientation and there is no third-party alternative on the ballot.  As usual, it is a lesser-of-two-evils choice. The special Congressional election in New York's 23rd District is far more interesting because the third-party candidate may do better than make a good showing -- he is in a good position to win.