Hitler's Calculation and the Sorry State of American Politics

Caution: political-party purists may be miffed by this article; but I call 'em like I see 'em. On the other hand, by the time you finish reading, you'll know what a "politigopoly" is.

Adolf Hitler was a poor student of mathematics, but he got the hang of it sufficiently to figure how to take over the German government. A "majority," Hitler reasoned, consisted of 51 per cent of the votes necessary to control 51 per cent of the seats in the legislature - - 26 per cent of those voting, in other words. Unfortunately, the majority of Americans now find themselves victims of the same political calculation.

Polls indicate that the liberal Democrats now in charge of the Federal government have basically the same values as about 25 to 35 per cent of the population, depending on the issue, with about 30 per cent being a rough median. Looking at the flip side of the equation, almost 7 out of 10 Americans do not agree with many of the the principles of the Democrats who govern them. Examples are given in the appendix below.

On the other hand, polls also indicate that conservative Republicans, formerly in charge of the Federal government and currently in charge of very little, also have basically the same values as 25 to 35 per cent of the population. So, again, about 7 out of 10 Americans do not agree with many of the principles of the Republicans who formerly governed them. See the appendix below for examples.

Current polling results focusing on "party identification" are contradictory and somewhat misleading. Republican Party identification is down, Democratic Party identification is up, but the results of generic Congressional preference polls are very close - - that is, about as many favor Republicans as favor Democrats. The major parties may be moving towards an even match heading toward the 2010 Congressional elections. See Rasmussen Reports, Generic Congressional Ballot; Gallup Poll, Party Affiliation; Hope and change: GOP even with Dems in party affiliation for first time since 2005.

Once again, voters will have a limited choice - - Democratic Party, Republican Party, or a minor party with little or no chance to prevail. It is an all-to-familiar "lesser of two evils" situation for some forty per cent of American voters. The two major parties have effectively monopolized ballot access, with legislation in every state that gives them automatic slots but forces third-party candidates to expend substantial time and money simply to get on the ballot. This is typically accomplished by collecting large numbers of signatures on petitions - - which the Democrats and Republicans then have the opportunity to challenge, signature by signature, forcing the minor party to waste even more time and money. Of course, third-party candidates have no right to challenge a major party's nominee on, say, the grounds that the Democrats have nominated an idiot and the Republicans have nominated a fool. The idiot and the fool get automatic places on the ballot; that's the law.

Since the philosophical realignment of the major parties in the 1960s and 1970s, with conservatives moving to the Republican Party and liberals moving to the Democratic Party, coalition-building has waned markedly. The party is either liberal-controlled or conservative-controlled. See, for example, Gallup, Republican Party Largely Composed of White Conservatives. In the present situation, with the Democratic Party controlling both the White House and Congress, the 26 per cent of the polity which is most liberal controls the national agenda and has the power to enact laws even when those laws are opposed by a majority of voters. See Boondoggle Report: As Approval Ratings Slip, Congress Passes More Wasteful Laws.

The major parties have abandoned coalition-building because they share the two-party politigopoly (political oligopoly). The party is either "in" or "out" and nothing else matters.

Adolph would be mightily amused.

Coming soon: What the Republicans are missing, and what they can do about it; and what should happen if they don't.

APPENDIX

- - Rasmussen Reports, 31% Say Stimulus Plan Has Helped Economy, 30% Say It Hurt

- - Gallup, Big Gov't Still Viewed as Greater Threat Than Big Business

- - Rasmussen Reports, 76% Say Government Likely To Waste Stimulus Money

- - US: Health Care (ABC/Post 6/18-21)

- - Rasmussen Reports, 80% Want Government To Sell Stake In GM, Chrysler Right Now

- - Rasmussen Reports, 31% Say Stimulus Package Helped, 27% Say It Hurt Economy

- - Rasmussen Reports, 75% Say Business Better At Customer Service Than Government

- - Rasmussen Reports - - "Even when presented with the stark choice between providing government funding or letting GM go out of business, only 32% of voters support the bailout. Most voters (56%) say it would be better to let GM go out of business." May 31, 2009.

- - Zogby Poll: 67% Favor Building New Nuclear Power Plants in U.S.

- - Gallup, Positive Initial Reaction to Sotomayor Nomination

- - Pollster.com, The Vanishing Young Republicans

- - Zogby Poll: Just 6% Prefer Giving Federal Money to Banks And 51% Say No Funding Even If Banks Fail

- - Gallup, Majority of Americans Continue To Oppose Gay Marriage

- - Zogby Poll: Just 27% Believe They Will Benefit From Economic Stimulus Bill

- - Gallup, Pelosi Gets Poor Marks For Handling Interrogation Matter

- - Rasmussen Reports, 45% Say Legal Skills Are Top Factor For Next Supreme Court Nominee (For 27% of voters, making sure the Supreme Court represents the diversity of America is most important")

- - Gallup, Americans Steady in Backing Friendlier U.S.-Cuba Relations

- - Pew Research Center, Pragmatic Americans Liberal and Conservative on Social Issues

- - Gallup, Before Recent Shootings, Gun-Control Support Was Fading

- - Gallup, Amid Budget Battle, Americans’ Views Hold Steady

- - Pew Research Center, Independents Take Center Stage in Obama Era

- - Gallup, Americans Remain Critical of United Nations

- - Poll: How Liberal or Conservative Are Americans?

- - Liberal-Conservative Self-Identification 1972-2004

Comments

[Lonely Conservative]

It's a sad state we're in right now. I would tend to disagree in one way: the republican party hasn't been all that conservative. They're just a hair to the right of the democrats.

[Jay Henderson]

I believe that it is the difference between big-government progressives, in the form of liberal Democrats, and big-government conservatives, like George W. Bush. It is, of course, a trap for the Republicans, because progressives play the big-government game so much better. One of the problems is that we tend to analyze politics in the liberal-moderate-conservative dimension, which is not the whole story. There is also the statist(big government)-centrist-libertarian dimension, which is virtually ignored. If you equate "conservatism" with less government, lower taxes, and more freedom, then you're in the wrong dimension. Many conservatives believe in central-government solutions - - e.g., James Dobson, whose litmus test for any "conservative" candidate was support for a Constitutional, i.e., Federal-level, abortion amendment. Ditto, traditional-marriage supporters - - many of them want a Federal-level solution. While these are conservative stands on the specific issues, they are statist positions on the second dimension. So I think that Republicans generally are far more conservative than Democrats on an issue-by-issue basis, but have been just as prone to operate on the statist side when it comes to how the issues are decided.